NOAA predicts 2022 hurricane season activity will be higher than usual
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season could see as many as three to nine major hurricanes
The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, may be unfavorable according to forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center. NOAA is predicting a 65% chance of an above-normal season, 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season: making this the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season. Forecasters are predicting a range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 9 major hurricanes, designated as category three or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
“Early preparation and understanding your risk is key to being hurricane resilient and climate-ready,” said Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo. “Throughout the hurricane season, NOAA experts will work around the clock to provide early and accurate forecasts and warnings that communities in the path of storms can depend on to stay informed.”
Backing up the prediction from NOAA, researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) also predict the season will have above-normal activity. CSU researchers forecast that there will be about 19 named storms and nine hurricanes this year; four of which will be major hurricanes. These predictions come in above the forecasted hurricane activity, which has previously predicted an average of 14.4 named storms and 7.2 hurricanes from 1991-2020. The CSU researchers will be publishing updated forecasts on the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season on June 2, July 7 and August 4, 2022. You can check in on the updates by visiting the CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research webpage.
The higher forecast is primarily due to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures and the anticipated absence of El Niño. Without the presence of El Niño in the Pacific, there will be very little wind shear force to break down hurricanes as they form in the Caribbean and Atlantic. Researchers predict that the current, weak La Niña will transition to be more neutral by the summer/fall but having a significant El Niño is very unlikely.
Resources to prepare for hurricanes
Research shows that hurricanes are getting stronger worldwide. Over the past 50 years, the average time it takes for hurricanes to dissipate when they hit land has doubled and there has been an increase in the frequency and intensity of the storms. With this year’s anticipated higher-than-average hurricane forecast, it is more important than ever to be prepared in case disaster strikes.
The International Code Council has resources and information available to help ensure communities stay informed on how to best prepare for disasters, like hurricanes, and what to do in the aftermath of the storm. The Code Council’s Hurricane Safety and Resources Toolkit provides resources on disaster safety and mitigation for code officials and the public to use. There you can access the Natural Disaster Preparedness Guide which provides tips on long-term preparation and what to do when facing the immediate threat of a disaster.
The Code Council offers several seminars related to hurricane preparedness to assist public safety officials, design professionals, inspectors, builders and contractors through the Learning Center. Brochures, publications, educational training and information on hurricane safety and preparedness can also be found on the Hurricane Safety Page.
There are several disaster relief and safety organizations that are available to help when needed and provide up-to-date hurricane protection resources including FEMA, FLASH, the National Weather Service, and the American Red Cross.
Related: 2022 Atlantic hurricane season namesBelow are the names of tropical storms or hurricanes that may form in the Atlantic Ocean in 2022, provided by the National Hurricane Center and World Meteorological Organization: Alex, Bonnie, Colin, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Ian, Julia, Karl, Lisa, Martin, Nicole, Owen, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tobias, Virginie and Walter. Last year was the third most-active year in terms of named storms, following the record-breaking season in 2020 when forecasters ran out of names and used the Greek alphabet for supplemental names. When hurricanes are deemed particularly destructive or significant, their names are retired from the list of usable storm names – Hurricane Ida which hit Grand Isle, Louisiana, as a Category 4 in August 2021 was removed from the list. |
Post-hurricane assistance through the Disaster Response Alliance
With collaboration from the National Council of Structural Engineers Associations (NCSEA), the Code Council created the Disaster Response Alliance (DRA) to help communities recover as quickly as possible after a natural disaster. The DRA is a national, digital database of volunteers available to assist local, state or federal entities who need skilled, trained and certified building safety professionals in the aftermath of a disaster. Volunteers can assist communities in need through post-disaster safety assessments, rapid safety assessments, detailed safety assessments, other building damage assessments, inspections and other code-related functions.
To serve as a disaster response volunteer in the future or to be included in the database, please contact ICC Government Relations Regional Manager Kelly Sadler.
Hurricane preparedness building standards
One of the best ways for communities to mitigate and prepare for natural disasters, like hurricanes, is to build using the most up-to-date, modern building codes and standards. Two building standards are currently available that are related to hurricane safety and preparedness: “ICC 500-2020 ICC/NSSA Standard for the Design and Construction of Storm Shelters” and “ICC 600-2020 Standard for Residential Construction in High-Wind Regions”.
ICC 500-08 ICC/NSA Standard was published jointly by the Code Council and the National Storm Shelter Association (NSSA) and provides the minimum design and construction requirements for storm shelters that serve as a safe refuge from storms. ICC 600-2020 aims to improve building resiliency by providing requirements for wind-resistant designs and construction details for residential buildings located in high-wind regions (120 to 180 mph).